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为了改进民用航空飞行安全的监控手段,探讨了一种飞行事故征候率的监视和控制方法。依据中国民用航空各月飞行事故征候率统计数据,通过进行概率分布形态假设检验,证明了飞行事故征候万时率和万次率均服从正态分布和Weibull分布。基于正常情况下事故征候率超出警戒值的概率小于0.1%的假设,分别给出了飞行事故征候率服从正态分布与服从Weibull分布时的警戒值。计算结果表明两种不同概率分布所得到的警戒值相对差仅为1%左右。鉴于飞行事故征候率数值非负的特性,推荐首选Weibull分布确定警戒值。另外,还依据警戒值给出了飞行事故征候率的监视和控制图,并给出了飞行事故征候率的控制准则。研究结论对于民用航空安全的监视与控制具有一定的参考应用价值。
In order to improve the monitoring of flight safety in civil aviation, a method of monitoring and controlling the rate of flight accident is discussed. According to the statistical data of the flight accident incidence rates of China’s civil aviation in each month, it is proved by test the morphological hypothesis of probability distribution that both the normal hourly rate and the Weibull distribution of the flight hourly rate and the 10,000-times flight rate obey the normal distribution. Based on the assumption that the probability of accident rate exceeding the warning value is less than 0.1% under normal circumstances, the warning values when the probability of flight accident follows the normal distribution and obeys Weibull distribution are respectively given. The calculation results show that the relative difference between two kinds of probability distributions is only about 1%. Given the non-negative nature of the flight accident rate, it is recommended that the preferred Weibull distribution determine the alert value. In addition, based on the alert value, the monitoring and control charts of flight accident rates are given, and the control rules of flight accident rates are given. The conclusions of the study have some reference and application value for the monitoring and control of civil aviation safety.