中国无衰退的产业转型升级战略预期尚无成功的先例。文章以历史比较为起点,借助空间经济学理论范式,从“泛”核心—外围、产业异质性与FDI异质性等视野切入,探讨了此种战略预期的约束条件及现实基础。研究揭示,中国经济在全球与东亚两个空间层面上均已挤进“核心”之列,但主要靠了经济活动强度而非密度;中国业已建立的具有集聚优势的产业与两个空间层面主要核心经济体间的产业颇具互补性;源自中国的外向FDI与中国所吸引的FDI具有强烈的异质性。三个视野引出三组约束条件。其中保持异质性FDI内外向流动的平衡,既可作为无衰退产业转型升级的风向标亦可作为政府政策的重要切入点。 China’s recession-free industrial restructuring and upgrading strategy is expected to have no precedent for success. Based on the historical paradigm of paradigm and using the theoretical paradigm of spatial economics, this paper explores the constraints and realistic bases of this strategic expectation from the perspective of the “pan” core - periphery, industry heterogeneity and FDI heterogeneity. The study reveals that China’s economy has squeezed into “core” at both the global and East Asian spatial levels, but mainly relies on the intensity of economic activity rather than its density. China has established an industry with agglomeration advantages and two spaces The industries in the major core economies at the level are quite complementary; the outward FDI originating from China and the FDI attracted by China are strongly heterogeneous. Three horizons lead to three sets of constraints. Among them, maintaining the balance of inward and outward flow of heterogeneous FDI can not only serve as a benchmark for the transformation and upgrading of a recession-free industry, but also serve as an important entry point for government policies.