论文部分内容阅读
在期望值计算的基础上,应用全部损失在承保人与受保人之间分配的概念,系统地给出通过概率地震危险计算期望损失的公式。计算中用到了从加速度到烈度到损失因子(破坏值与财产值的比率)的转换关系.地震危险值取自加利福尼亚4个地区,分别是加利福尼亚典型的高、低地震危险区以及北部和南部各一个人口最稠密地区。计算结果表明,期望损失受危险性和土质条件影响很大。分别对应于烈度、加速度和损失因子的部分损失值显示,与低危险区相比,高危险区的总损失更多地来自于高烈度和加速度。对应于损失因子的部分损失表明,即便是在高危险区,大部分损失仍来自低于15％～20％的损失因子。这个结果在总损失额大于免赔额时有重要影响。承保人的损失计算表明,仅仅5％的免赔额就使承保人在高危险区减少了40％～50％的损失,在低危险区则减少更多。不足额保险和通货膨胀的影响增加了承保人的损失,但小于免赔额在减少损失方面的影响。计算表明,关键在于调整地面运动与损失因子的转换关系。另外,土质条件校正需要用更多的近期强地面运动和地震破坏数据进行校准。
Based on the expected value calculation, the concept of total loss distribution between insurer and insured person is applied to systematically give the expected loss formula by probability earthquake risk calculation. The calculations used the conversion from acceleration to intensity to loss factor (the ratio of damage to property value) The seismic hazard values were taken from four areas in California, the typical high and low seismic hazard areas of California and the northern and southern One of the most densely populated areas. The calculation results show that the expected loss is greatly affected by the danger and soil conditions. The partial loss values corresponding to intensity, acceleration and loss factors, respectively, show that total losses in high-risk areas are more from high intensity and acceleration than those from low-hazard areas. The partial loss corresponding to the loss factor shows that most of the loss comes from losses of less than 15% to 20%, even in high-risk areas. This result has a significant impact when the total loss is greater than the deductible. Calculations by insurers show that just 5% of deductibles reduce insurers’ losses by 40% -50% in high-risk areas and more in low-risk areas. Insufficient insurance and inflation have increased insurers’ losses but are less than the impact of deductibles in reducing losses. The calculation shows that the key is to adjust the conversion of ground motion and loss factor. In addition, calibration of soil conditions requires more recent strong ground motion and seismic damage data.