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工程建设中通常都需要对未来的一些不确定因素进行估计,并以此估计值准备一部分资金,以备未来使用。但目前进行估计的时候常采用一个固定比率方式,不能最大限度反映未来可能的变化。文章拟采用蒙特卡洛模拟技术,对其中的基本预备费的估算进行探讨,以求能最大程度全面体现未来的变化,获得最真实的费用。
In the construction of the project, some uncertainties in the future will usually need to be estimated, and the estimate will be used to prepare a part of the funds for future use. However, at present, a fixed ratio method is often adopted for the estimation and the maximum possible future changes can not be reflected. The article intends to use Monte Carlo simulation technology, which estimates the basic reserve to explore, in order to maximize the fullest reflect the future changes, the most real cost.