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研究目标:考察中国企业参与全球价值链的持续时间及其决定因素。研究方法:采用2000~2007年中国企业面板数据,通过生存分析模型进行研究。研究发现:中国企业进入和退出全球价值链(GVC)的企业数量大体呈上升趋势,企业总体嵌入GVC的持续时间较短,均值为1.827年,且随着持续时间增长企业生存的危险性逐渐降低。其中东部地区企业、加工贸易企业、民营企业和外资企业在GVC中的生存率更高,风险率更低,持续嵌入GVC的能力更强。出口发达国家的企业、加工贸易企业、民营企业、外资企业和具有较好研发能力、全要素生产率较高、规模较大、融资约束较小、年龄较小的企业退出GVC的概率更低,嵌入GVC的持续时间更长。研究创新:构建企业层面价值链嵌入程度指标,并运用生存分析创新性地考察中国企业在全球价值链中的进入退出行为。研究价值:对评析贸易开放的利得以及寻求“中国制造”在全球价值链中持续经营的模式具有重要的理论意义。
Research Objectives: To examine the duration and determinants of Chinese enterprises participating in GVCs. Methods: The data of Chinese enterprises from 2000 to 2007 were used to study the survival analysis model. The study found that: the number of Chinese enterprises entering and leaving the global value chain (GVC) generally shows an upward trend, and the overall duration of embedding into GVC is shorter with a mean value of 1.287, and the risk of survival of enterprises gradually decreases as the duration increases . Among them, the eastern region’s enterprises, processing trade enterprises, private-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises have higher survival rates and lower risk rates in GVC, and their ability to continuously embed GVC is stronger. Exported enterprises from developed countries, processing trade enterprises, private enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises and enterprises with good R & D capability, high total factor productivity, large scale and small financing constraints, the younger enterprises exit GVC with lower probability of embedding GVC lasts longer. Research and Innovation: Constructing enterprise-level indicators of value chain embeddedness and applying survival analysis to innovatively examine Chinese enterprises’ entry and exit behavior in global value chains. Research value: It is of great theoretical significance to evaluate the profit of trade liberalization and seek the mode of “China-made” going-concern in the global value chain.