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中科院大气物理所刘骥平和宋米荣对最新获得的30个CMIP5气候和地球系统模式的模拟预测进行了分析,采用两种不同的方法来减小预测北极9月未来出现无海冰状况时间的不确定性。一种方法是从30个模式中选择能最好地模拟1979年以来观测的北极海冰气候平均态和变化趋势。另一种方法是利用现在和未来模拟的北极海冰状态密切和持续的统计关系以及最近几年北极海冰的变化来约束模式海冰模拟的误差。这两种不同的方法给出了相似的北极出现无海冰的时间。其结果是:在高排放情
Liu Ji-ping and Song Mi-rong of the CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics have analyzed the latest modeling of the 30 CMIP5 climatic and earth system models and used two different approaches to reduce the uncertainty in predicting the time for future Arctic sea ice-free conditions in September Sex. One approach is to choose from 30 patterns that best simulate the average and trend of the Arctic sea ice climate observed since 1979. Another approach is to use the current and future simulations of the close and continuous statistical relationship between Arctic sea ice conditions and changes in the Arctic sea ice in recent years to constrain the model sea ice simulation errors. These two different approaches give similar sea ice-free times in the Arctic. The result is: In a high emission situation