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传统的概率风险通过基于历史灾害事件记录分别求解风险源强度的概率分布曲线和风险承受体的脆弱性曲线而得到,表示的是研究区域如果发生一次灾害事件的期望损失值,缺乏表征风险的“空间、时间、水平值”三要素中的时间要素指标,因而会存在系统误差.因此,本文通过对传统的概率风险模型添加时间要素,给出了系统误差校正后的概率风险评估模型.之后,以浙江省和广东省的台风概率风险比较研究为例,通过确定具体的指标和采用信息扩散技术估计相应的函数,将校正后的概率风险评估模型具体化为台风概率风险的应用模型,评估了两省的台风概率风险.结果表明,系统误差校正前后,两省的台风概率风险比较截然不同,校正后的概率风险结果更符合客观实际.
The traditional probability risk is obtained by separately analyzing the probability distribution curve of risk source strength and the vulnerability curve of risk acceptor based on historical disaster event records, indicating that if there is an expected loss value of a disaster event in the research area, there is a lack of There are systematic errors in the three elements of “space, time, level value ” Therefore, by adding time elements to the traditional probability risk model, this paper gives a probabilistic risk assessment model after system error correction. Afterwards, taking the comparative study of typhoon probability risk between Zhejiang Province and Guangdong Province as an example, the revised probabilistic risk assessment model is embodied as the application model of typhoon probability risk by determining specific indicators and using information diffusion techniques to estimate the corresponding functions. The probability of typhoon in two provinces is evaluated.The results show that the probability of typhoon in two provinces is quite different before and after system error correction, and the corrected probability risk is more in line with objective reality.