论文部分内容阅读
采用2011年8月~2016年6月间我国饲料价格(以玉米、豆粕价格为代表)、加工价格与猪肉价格的月度数据,运用脉冲响应函数等方法分析三者之间的关系。结果表明:猪肉产业链中上游饲料价格波动是造成猪肉价格波动的主要因素,猪肉价格波动反作用于玉米价格;上游饲料价格波动与中游加工价格波动影响单向通畅;下游猪肉价格波动是引起中游加工价格变化的主要因素。基于结论提出保证玉米、豆粕的持续供应,加强屠宰加工与流通环节的管理,引导从业者理性决策,建立猪肉一体化生产体系等建议。
Using the monthly data of China’s feed prices (represented by corn and soybean meal prices), processing prices and pork prices from August 2011 to June 2016, the relationship among the three was analyzed using impulse response function and other methods. The results showed that the fluctuation of feed price in the upstream and downstream of pork industry chain was the main factor causing the fluctuation of pork price. The fluctuation of pork price reacted to the price of corn. The fluctuation of feed price fluctuated unidirectionally with the fluctuation of middle processing price. The main factor in price changes. Based on the conclusion, it puts forward some suggestions such as guaranteeing the continuous supply of corn and soybean meal, strengthening the management of slaughtering, processing and circulation, guiding practitioners to make rational decisions and establishing integrated pork production system.