论文部分内容阅读
中国经济步入新常态后,经济增长速度及经济周期波动趋势呈现新特征,国际经济周期协动性影响着中国经济的增长。选取63篇论文,对中国与其他国家或地区的经济周期协动性进行元分析实证研究。结果表明,中国与越南和新西兰的协动性最强,中国与美国、新加坡、马来西亚和泰国的经济周期协动性较强,且呈逐渐增强的趋势,但与日本和菲律宾的协动性却较弱。贸易强度、产业内贸易强度、金融开放度、财政政策及货币政策会促进经济周期协动性的加强。所选中文样本对中国经济周期协动性研究及选定的国家稳健性检验均不存在发表偏好。因此,提出提升内动力、合理运用宏观调控工具、注重外资引进质量、构建经济波动的预警机制的对策建议。
After China’s economy has entered a new normal, the trend of economic growth and the fluctuation of economic cycles have shown new characteristics. The international economic cycle has an impact on the growth of China’s economy. Sixty-three papers are selected to conduct an empirical meta-analysis of the economic cycle co-ordination between China and other countries or regions. The result shows that China has the strongest synergy with Vietnam and New Zealand. China has stronger economic cycles with the United States, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand and shows a gradual upward trend. However, its co-operation with Japan and the Philippines Weaker. Trade intensity, intra-industry trade intensity, financial openness, fiscal policy and monetary policy will promote the enhancement of economic cycle coordination. The selected Chinese sample does not have a publication preference for the China Economic Cycle Synergy Study and the selected national robustness test. Therefore, some countermeasures are put forward to enhance internal motivation, make rational use of macroeconomic regulation and control tools, pay attention to the quality of foreign investment, and construct an early warning mechanism of economic fluctuations.