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依据石羊河流域中下游地区64个观测点30年(1978～2007)的地下水位观测资料,定量分析了地下水位的季节性动态特征和多年变化规律及其分布地带,将季节性动态划分为径流、开采、灌溉—开采、蒸发4种类型,多年动态划分为快速下降、缓慢下降和基本稳定3种类型。采用灰色理论建立了所有观测点地下水位的灰色残差修正GM(1,1)预报模型并进行了预报。预报至2010年,石河河流域中下游地区的地下水位仍将处于不断下降过程,但下降幅度较1978～2007年有所减缓,部分地带地下水位可能趋于稳定。预报结果对于改善流域特别是下游民勤绿洲的生态与环境将起到积极的影响。
According to the observation data of groundwater level from 64 observation points in the middle and lower reaches of Shiyang River in the past 30 years (1978-2007), the seasonal dynamic characteristics and multi-year variation regularity of groundwater level and its distribution are quantitatively analyzed. The seasonal dynamics are divided into Runoff, mining, irrigation - mining, evaporation four types, many years dynamic divided into rapid decline, slow decline and basic stability of 3 types. Based on the gray theory, the gray residual error correction GM (1,1) forecasting model of groundwater level at all observation points was established and predicted. It is forecasted that by 2010, the groundwater table in the middle and lower reaches of the Shihe River Basin will continue to decline. However, the decrease rate will slow down from 1978 to 2007, and the groundwater table in some areas may stabilize. The forecast results will have a positive impact on improving the ecology and environment of Minqin Oasis in the basin especially downstream.