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把自相关分析法应用于中国电离层短期预报,提出了一种简便可行的自相关系数分段预报方法:对于提前1~4h的预报采用临频相对变化RDF的自相关系数和“迭代法”,对于提前4h以上的预报采用f0F2的自相关系数和“一次法”.利用重庆和广州电离层观测站的数据给出了该方法预报精度的定量估计.该方法对提前1~4h的预报有明显的改善,对提前4h以上的预报其预报误差趋向饱和,但仍优于流动月中值法.该方法还可应用于其他电离层参量的短期预报.
The autocorrelation analysis method is applied to the short-term forecast of ionosphere in China. A simple and feasible segmentation forecast method of autocorrelation coefficient is proposed. For the forecast of 1 ~ 4h ahead, the autocorrelation coefficient and “iteration method” , And for the prediction of more than 4h in advance, the autocorrelation coefficient of f0F2 and the “first-order method” are used.The quantitative estimation of the prediction accuracy of this method is given by using the data from the ionospheric stations in Chongqing and Guangzhou.The method is applied to the prediction of 1 ~ 4h ahead of time The prediction error of the forecast above 4h tends to be saturated, but it is still better than the monthly flow method.The method can also be applied to the short-term forecast of other ionospheric parameters.