2013年5月份以来,在传统需求旺季预期带动和进口成本支撑下,大连棕榈油下跌暂时告一段落,并逐渐进入筑底回升阶段,1309合约最大反弹幅度约7%。虽然技术指标仍呈现缓慢向上的态势,但由于基本面缺乏实质性内生动能———供给充裕、去库存艰难,加之豆棕油价差回归,令棕榈油处于替代需求释放后的价格劣势地位。 Since May 2013, due to the expected demand driven by traditional peak demand season and the import cost, the downturn of Dalian’s palm oil temporarily came to an end and gradually entered the bottom rebound stage. The maximum rebound of 1309 contract was about 7%. Although the technical indicators are still showing a slow upward trend, due to the lack of substantial intrinsic endogenous energy in fundamentals --- ample supply and difficult inventory, coupled with the return of beans and palm oil spreads, has put palm oil in a disadvantaged position after the release of alternative demand.