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传统“Cagan规则”认为,政府通货膨胀税收益最大化的条件是,通货膨胀率应该为(货币需求关于)利率半弹性的倒数。这一规则是局部均衡条件下的结果,并未考虑通胀的实际经济效应。本文基于交易成本方法在一般均衡框架内讨论收益最大化时通货膨胀率的决定问题。该框架中收益最大化的通货膨胀率小于Ca-gan规则值,这一结论得到了中国1945—1949年恶性通胀时期经验数据的支持。经验结果还表明,相对于Cagan规则,根据交易成本方法设定的通货膨胀率尽管并没有明显提高政府的通货膨胀税收益,却大幅降低了社会福利损失。
The traditional “Cagan Rule” holds that the maximization of government inflation tax benefits is that the inflation rate should be the reciprocal of the half-elasticity of interest rates (about the demand for money). This rule is the result of partial equilibrium and does not take into account the actual economic effects of inflation. Based on the transaction cost method, this paper discusses the problem of determining the inflation rate in the maximization of returns in the general equilibrium framework. The conclusion that the maximized return of inflation in this framework is less than the Ca-gan rule value is supported by the empirical data from China’s hyperinflation period of 1945-1949. The empirical results also show that, in contrast to the Cagan rule, the inflation rate set according to the transaction cost method has greatly reduced the loss of social welfare although it did not significantly increase the government’s inflation tax revenue.