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货币政策是我国重要的宏观调控工具,对我国城镇就业具有非对称性效果。本文在理论分析的基础上,使用向量自回归(VAR)模型实证检验货币政策在城镇就业上的非对称性效果。研究发现,一是货币政策对产出的非对称性效果在时间跨度和作用强度上均有表现;二是货币政策对城镇就业具有非对称性效果,且在城镇不同规模企业的就业中非对称性效果存在差异;三是扩张性货币政策对产出上升的贡献越来越有限,而紧缩性货币政策对产出下降的作用将会越来越大。货币政策对城镇大型企业就业变动的影响有限且后期不断削弱,对城镇中小企业就业变化而言,扩张性货币政策的贡献弱于紧缩性货币政策。
Monetary policy is an important macro-control tool in our country and has an asymmetric effect on employment in urban areas in China. Based on the theoretical analysis, this paper empirically tests the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on urban employment by using VAR model. The study finds that the first is that the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on output both have performance in terms of time span and intensity of action; second, the effect of monetary policy on urban employment is asymmetric and asymmetric in the employment of urban enterprises of different sizes Third, the contribution of expansionary monetary policy to the increase of output is more and more limited, and the effect of the tightening monetary policy on the decline of output will be greater and greater. The effect of monetary policy on the employment change of large-scale urban enterprises is limited and weakened in the later period. For the employment change of urban SMEs, the contribution of expansionary monetary policy is weaker than the tightening monetary policy.