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本文运用空间误差面板模型分析中国1978~2012年就业弹性系数为0.36,与发展中国家平均约在0.3~0.4之间基本一致,表明其经济增长与就业关系在总体上合乎奥肯定律;而自1995年以来就业弹性逐年减弱,近几年甚至出现高增长城镇登记失业率反而攀升的现象,主要是由于服务业逐渐上升为主导产业但却受制于城镇化与市场化改革严重滞后,造成其GDP和就业人员在三次产业中所占比例还只有一般市场经济国家的50%左右所致。由此可见经济发展新常态即市场经济新常态,中国特色社会主义市场经济的不同在于所有制主体而不在方法体制,唯有结合国情实行与一般市场经济分税制接轨的政府间人均财力的均衡,促使全国市场统一和“用脚投票”的流动性规律发生作用,让作为市场化城镇化晴雨表的服务业巨大发展活力与潜能充分释放出来,才能确保新常态下充分就业和促进经济中高速稳健增长。
This paper analyzes the employment elasticity coefficient of China from 1978 to 2012 by using the spatial error panel model, which is basically the same as that of the developing countries with an average of about 0.3 to 0.4, indicating that the relationship between economic growth and employment is generally Okun’s law. Since 1995, the employment elasticity has weakened year by year. In recent years, even the phenomenon that the registered unemployment rate in cities with high growth has gone up is mainly due to the fact that the service industry is gradually rising to the leading industry but subject to the serious lag in the urbanization and marketization reforms, causing its GDP And the proportion of employed persons in the three industries is only about 50% of that of the general market economy. From this we can see that the new normal of economic development is the new normal of the market economy. The difference of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics lies in that the main body of ownership is not the method and system, but only the balance of financial resources among the governments that are integrated with the general taxation system of the market economy, Market unity and “voting by foot ” will have an effect on the liquidity law so as to fully release the tremendous vitality and potential of the service industry as a barometer of market-oriented urbanization in order to ensure full employment under the new normal and promote a steady and steady economy increase.