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本文基于我国1990-2014年的分省面板数据,采用系统GMM估计方法对政府支出、金融发展和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明:(1)政府支出和经济增长存在显著的倒U型关系,在拐点出现之前,政府支出增加能显著促进经济增长,但当越过拐点之后,政府支出继续扩大则会对经济增长产生不利影响;(2)金融发展和经济增长之间存在显著的正相关关系,且政府支出和金融发展的交叉项系数显著为正,这说明现阶段的金融发展依然能够有效地发挥资源配置功能,同时完善的金融市场能够显著增强政府支出对经济增长的促进作用;(3)在经济发达地区,金融发展能够对经济增长产生正面影响,同时政府对市场的干预作用趋于弱化,而在经济欠发达地区,金融发展对经济发展存在抑制效应,这说明在经济欠发达地区,金融发展滞后使其难以充分发挥有效配置资源的作用,而经济发展则在很大程度上依赖于政府支出的调节。
Based on the provincial panel data from 1990 to 2014 in our country, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between government expenditure, financial development and economic growth by using the method of systematic GMM estimation. The empirical results show that: (1) There is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between government spending and economic growth. Before the inflection point appears, the increase of government spending can significantly promote economic growth. However, when the inflection point is crossed, the government spending will continue to expand to bring about economic growth (2) there is a significant positive correlation between financial development and economic growth, and the cross-term coefficient of government expenditure and financial development is significantly positive, which shows that the financial development at this stage still can effectively play the role of resource allocation, At the same time, a sound financial market can significantly enhance the role of government spending in promoting economic growth. (3) In economically developed areas, financial development can have a positive impact on economic growth while government intervention in the market tends to weaken. However, In developed areas, financial development has a deterrent effect on economic development. This shows that in economically underdeveloped regions, the lagging development of finance makes it difficult to give full play to its role in allocating resources efficiently. Economic development relies heavily on the adjustment of government expenditure.