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政府利用公共债务进行公共投资会在一定程度上对私人投资产生挤入或挤出效应。采用我国1990—2013年的年度时间序列数据构建计量模型,就公共债务对私人投资的综合影响进行实证检验,研究结果显示:我国公共债务对私人投资具有显著的挤出效应,同时我国公共债务对私人投资的影响还具有非线性效应以及滞后效应。在全球经济放缓及我国经济发展“新常态”背景下,我国在利用公共债务投资为私人投资创造外部性效应的同时,更应合理调控公共债务规模以及投资力度,以避免对私人投资形成过度挤占,从而有效引导和鼓励私人投资,进而释放私人投资活力。
The government’s use of public debt to make public investment will, to a certain extent, squeeze in or squeeze out private investment. Based on the annual time series data from 1990 to 2013 in our country, the econometric model was constructed and the public debt’s effect on private investment was tested empirically. The result shows that public debt in our country has a significant crowding-out effect on private investment while public debt in China The effects of private investment also have non-linear effects as well as lagged effects. In the context of the global economic slowdown and China’s economic development “new normal ” background, while making use of public debt investment to create external effect for private investment, our country should also rationally control public debt scale and investment so as to avoid the private investment The formation of over-crowded, so as to effectively guide and encourage private investment, thus releasing the vitality of private investment.