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目的:本研究利用上海市肿瘤登记报告系统收集的1973年至2007年上海市区胰腺癌发病资料,分析上海市区胰腺癌发病的长期趋势。方法:按照世界标准人口计算胰腺癌的年龄标化发病率。采用Joinpoint回归模型分析胰腺癌发病趋势。结果:上海市区男、女性胰腺癌标化发病率均呈持续上升趋势。男性胰腺癌标化发病率在1982年前以每年3.9%的速度上升,以后上升速度有所减慢,1982年至2007年的年度变化百分比(APC)为1.3%;而女性胰腺癌标化发病率在此期间始终以每年1.7%的速度上升。尤其在老年人群(≥65岁)和青壮年男性(15～54岁)中,其胰腺癌标化发病率上升趋势更为显著。结论:上海市区人群的胰腺癌发病率居世界中等水平,而老年人群的胰腺癌发病率已达世界高发国家水平。对于控制吸烟和其他可改变的胰腺癌相关环境行为的危险因素研究和健康干预工作亟待加强。
OBJECTIVE: In this study, the incidence of pancreatic cancer in Shanghai city from 1973 to 2007 collected by Shanghai Tumor Registry and Reporting System was used to analyze the long-term trend of pancreatic cancer in Shanghai. Methods: Calculate the age-standardized incidence of pancreatic cancer according to the world’s standard population. Jointing regression model was used to analyze the incidence of pancreatic cancer. Results: The prevalence of pancreatic cancer in Shanghai urban areas showed a rising trend. The prevalence of pancreatic cancer in men increased by 3.9% per year before 1982, and the rate of increase afterwards slowed down from 1.3% in 1982 to 2007 (APC); while the incidence of pancreatic cancer in women During this period the rate has always been rising at a rate of 1.7% per annum. Especially in the elderly population (≥ 65 years) and young men (15 to 54 years old), the upward trend in the incidence of pancreatic cancer is even more marked. Conclusion: The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Shanghai urban population is medium in the world, while the incidence of pancreatic cancer in the elderly population has reached the level of the world with high incidence in the world. Research on risk factors and health interventions to control smoking and other changeable environmental behaviors associated with pancreatic cancer need to be strengthened.