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目的分析泰安市传染病自动预警系统的运行情况,为进一步提高预警效果提供依据。方法利用2008年4月21日至2014年12月31日泰安市传染病自动预警资料进行相关统计分析。结果 2008~2014年泰安市预警系统共发出5 755条预警信号,涉及病种30种,24h内信号响应率为95.08%(5 472/5 755),响应时间中位数为0.48h。经初步核实确认疑似信号213起,经现场调查确认暴发/流行事件14起,其中手足口病7起,流行性感冒2起,流行性腮腺炎3起,水痘和其他感染性腹泻病各1起,预警信号阳性率为0.24%(14/5755)。结论预警系统可初步实现传染病暴发/流行的早期自动预警,但要提高预警信号阳性率还需设置合理的预警阈值和改进预警工作机制。
Objective To analyze the operation of automatic early warning system for infectious diseases in Tai’an City and provide the basis for further improving the early warning effect. Methods Based on the statistical analysis of automatic warning data of infectious diseases in Tai’an from April 21, 2008 to December 31, 2014, Results From 2008 to 2014, a total of 5 755 warning signals were sent out from early warning system in Tai’an city, involving 30 species. The response rate was 95.08% (5 472/5 755) in 24h and the median response time was 0.48 hours. Confirmed by the initial confirmation of 213 suspected signals, confirmed by an on-site investigation of 14 outbreaks / epidemic events, including 7 cases of HFMD, 2 cases of influenza, 3 cases of mumps, 1 case of chickenpox and 1 case of other infectious diarrhea , The positive rate of early warning signal was 0.24% (14/5755). Conclusion The early-warning system can initially realize the early automatic warning of outbreaks / epidemics of infectious diseases. However, to improve the positive rate of early warning signals, a reasonable early warning threshold and an improved early warning mechanism need to be set up.