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异质性及能源反弹效应冲击是能源效率决定机制及其演化过程中不可忽视的问题。针对现有文献的不足,本文采用时空加权回归模型对中国30个省区在1995~2011年间各时空点上能源效率演化的异质特征进行了分析,并利用CES生产函数及空间计量模型估算了该期间全国和各省区的能源反弹效应情况,探讨能源反弹效应存在时技术进步对能源效率提高的复杂性影响。研究表明,在中国能源效率演化过程中,提升能源效率的关键因素是产业结构轻型化,长期较低的市场化程度导致能源价格对能源效率的调节作用不显著;能源消费结构和对外开放程度在一定程度上抑制了能源效率提高;能源反弹效应的存在制约着技术进步对能源效率的促进作用。能源效率的时空演化路径存在异质性特征,从时间维度上看,2000年后的能源效率改善效果比2000年前有很大提高;从空间维度上看,东部地区能源政策实施效果相比中西部而言更好。因此,能源效率演化路径的异质性特征是不容忽视的,必须调节能源反弹效应的冲击,以实现不同区域能源效率提高和能源消费的平衡发展。
Heterogeneity and the impact of energy rebound effects are issues that can not be ignored in the energy efficiency decision mechanism and its evolution. In view of the shortcomings of existing literatures, this paper analyzes the heterogeneous characteristics of energy efficiency evolution of all the 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1995 to 2011 using the spatio-temporal weighted regression model. The CES production function and spatial econometric model are used to estimate During this period, the energy rebound effect of the whole country and each province and autonomous region explored the complexity of the impact of technological progress on energy efficiency in the presence of energy rebound effects. The research shows that in the process of China’s energy efficiency evolution, the key factor to promote energy efficiency is the light-weight industrial structure. The long-term low degree of marketization leads to the insignificance of the energy price regulation on energy efficiency. The energy consumption structure and the degree of opening to the outside world To a certain extent, inhibited the improvement of energy efficiency; the existence of energy rebound effect restricts the promotion of energy efficiency by technological progress. The time-space evolution path of energy efficiency has heterogeneity characteristics. From the time dimension, the improvement effect of energy efficiency after 2000 is much higher than that of 2000; from the spatial dimension, the effect of energy policy in the east The west is better. Therefore, the heterogeneous characteristics of the evolution path of energy efficiency can not be ignored, and the impact of energy rebound effect must be adjusted so as to achieve the balanced development of energy efficiency and energy consumption in different regions.