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利用地质调查史中矿床发现的时间规律来预测一个地区的资源潜力,或今后一段时间可能发现的矿床数,叫做历史分析法或时率法。D.F.赫威特在1929年研究英国康瓦尔锡矿的历史兴衰时首先从数学上总结了这方面的规律。他以年代为自变量、发现矿床频数为因变量拟合的曲线,人称赫威特曲线。据报道,应用赫威特曲线预言的美国石油和天然气生产情况有惊人的正确性。本文以攀西地区为例,总结该区地质工作中矿床发现的时间规律,预测今后十年可能获得的地质成果,供该区规划时参考。工作中得到秦震、周信国高级工程师热情支持、指导,陈居堂工程师提供了系统的综合性资料,在此一并致谢。
Using the temporal regularities found in geological deposits in the history of geological surveys to predict the resource potential of an area or the number of deposits that may be discovered in the future, it is called the historical analysis or the time-rate method. D.F. Hewitt first mathematically summarized the law in 1929 when he studied the historical rise and fall of the Cornish tin mine in the United Kingdom. He took years as an independent variable and found that the frequency of deposit is a curve fitted by dependent variable, which is called the Hewitt curve. It is reported that the production of oil and gas in the United States predicted by the Hewitt curve is surprisingly correct. This paper takes Panxi area as an example to summarize the time rule found in the geological work of the area and predict the geological achievements that may be obtained in the next ten years for the reference of planning of the area. Qin Zhen, Zhou Xin Guo enthusiastic support of senior engineer, guidance, Chen Jutang engineers provide a comprehensive system of information, together with the thanks.