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“十一五”期间,各省份地方政府减排COD的主要途径有:建设污水处理厂、工业治理和结构关停,而各地对这三种途径的偏好以及相应的减排绩效大不相同。采用基于主成分分析的多元回归分析方法,分析了不同因素对于地方政府COD减排措施的影响(正相关、负相关还是不相关),发现各省份的COD排放背景(生活COD和工业COD的排放比例和排放强度)与地方政府能力(财政能力和环境监管能力)对减排措施有直接影响,显示了地方政府理性行为选择对减排潜力高的领域和减排效率高的途径有明显偏好,而地方经济结构则对COD减排没有影响。在此基础上进一步讨论了当前中国环境治理的地方分权模式,通过COD减排证明地方政府更为关注政治利益而非经济利益,针对地方政府的政绩考核在环保领域同样适用,但是现阶段地方政府在减排上存在路径偏好,在一定程度上偏离了政策初衷。
During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the main ways of reducing COD by local governments in various provinces include: construction of sewage treatment plants, industrial control and closure of structures, and the preference of all localities for these three channels and the corresponding performance of emission reduction the same. Using multiple regression analysis method based on principal component analysis, the impact of different factors on COD emission reduction measures of local governments (positive correlation, negative correlation or non-correlation) was analyzed. It was found that COD emission background (COD of living and industrial COD Scale and emission intensity) and local government capacity (fiscal capacity and environmental regulatory capacity) have a direct impact on emission reduction measures. This shows that local governments’ rational behavior choices have obvious preference for areas with high emission reduction potential and high emission reduction efficiency, The local economic structure has no effect on COD reduction. On this basis, we further discuss the current decentralization model of environmental governance in China, and prove that local governments pay more attention to political benefits rather than economic benefits through COD emission reduction. The same applies to the performance evaluation of local governments in the field of environmental protection, but at this stage, The government has a path preference on emission reduction, to a certain extent, deviated from the original intention of the policy.