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雷暴预报有着重要的作用。但由于控制雷暴形成和发展的因素比较复杂,要预报它在什么地方、什么时间发展比较困难,是预报中的一个“老大难”问题。最近我们在大量资料分析和群众经验的基础上,井以一定的理论为指导,在三个月的时间中初步总结出了一个当地、当天有无雷暴的客观预报方法。现在正和使用单位一起在进行中间试验。从试验的初步结果来看,准确率还不错,一些比较严重而用过去一些方法预报不出的雷暴,用现在这个方法一般能把它预报出来。
Thunderstorm forecast has an important role. However, due to the complexity of controlling the formation and development of thunderstorms, it is difficult to forecast when and where the development of thunderstorms will occur. This is a “chronicity” problem in forecasting. Recently, on the basis of a large amount of data analysis and mass experiences, we used a certain theory as a guide and summed up in a matter of three months an objective forecast method for whether there was a thunderstorm on the spot or not. We are carrying out intermediate test with user now. The initial results from the test point of view, the accuracy is not bad, some more serious and some methods used in the past can not predict the thunderstorms, with this method can now generally predict it.