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针对溃坝造成大坝下游居民生命损失的问题,考虑溃坝洪水的发生过程,将溃坝前风险人口撤离率、溃坝后未撤离人口避难率、未避难人口死亡率及其他相关影响因素确定的修正系数这四项重要指标引入到溃坝生命损失估算过程中。根据我国已溃水库的相关资料,借鉴已有研究成果,着重分析了警报时间与撤离率、溃坝洪水严重性与避难率的关系曲线,并用模糊综合评价法确定生命损失的修正系数,最终得到系统的溃坝生命损失估算模型与方法。将该模型与方法应用于已溃大坝生命损失估算中,生命损失的平均相对误差绝对值为10.6%,通过与其他估算方法对比发现,该方法的计算结果更接近实际损失值。研究成果可为溃坝生命损失估算提供参考。
Considering the process of dam break flood, the evacuation rate of risky population before dam failure, the refuge rate of non-evacuated population after dam failure, the mortality rate of unsuspended population and other related influencing factors are determined Of the correction coefficient of these four important indicators into the dam failure assessment of life. According to the relevant data of the collapsed reservoirs in our country and the existing research results, we focus on the analysis of the relationship between the warning time and the evacuation rate, the severity of the dam breach floods and the evacuation rate, and determine the correction coefficient of the loss of life by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Finally, Estimation model and method of system dam failure life loss. The model and method are applied to estimate the life loss of a collapsed dam. The average relative error of the loss of life is 10.6%. Comparing with other estimation methods, the result of this method is closer to the actual loss value. The research results can provide a reference for the estimation of dam loss of life.