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在缺乏足够明确的数据的前提下,长期观察香港内地的进出口数据,对于了解内地经济的实质、水分、投资者的情绪,有着非常重要的作用。香港与内地的进出口数据,比较敏感地反映了热钱的进出,异常贸易数据成为虚假贸易掩盖下的资本外流的度量尺。如果内地向香港的出口异常上升,说明外币换成人民币,内地套利套息空间较大。如果香港从内地的进口异常上升,说明人民币换成外币,内地对贬值的恐慌性较强。
Long-term observation of the import and export data of the Mainland in the absence of sufficient and definite data is very important for understanding the essence of the Mainland’s economy, water and investor sentiment. The import and export data of Hong Kong and the Mainland reflect the hot money import and export more sensitively, and the data of abnormal trade has become the measure of capital outflow under the false trade. If the abnormal increase in the Mainland’s exports to Hong Kong indicates that the foreign currency is converted into Renminbi, there will be ample room for arbitrage in the Mainland. If the import of Hong Kong from the Mainland is unusually high, it means that the exchange of Renminbi for foreign currency will make the Mainland more scared of devaluation.