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近几年关于中国居民消费行为背后的预期,普遍被认为居民对未来收入悲观、不稳定(刘国光等,1999;张曙光,2000)。预期究竟对消费行为产生了多大的影响呢?尽管有许多作者探讨了预期收入问题,但是大多数文献并未具体识别消费行为模式的变化。本文借助Hall检验理性预期持久收入的估计方法,通过两阶段估计就北京地区数据具体识别了居民受预期影响后边际消费倾向究竟在多大程度上发生了变化;同时间接检验得出,城镇居民的支出结构预期而不是收入预期使边际消费倾向发生了变化。
In recent years, the expectations behind the consumer behavior of Chinese residents have generally been considered as pessimistic and unstable for future income (Liu Guoguang et al., 1999; Zhang Shuguang, 2000). Exactly how much of the expected impact on consumer behavior? Although many authors have explored the expected earnings issue, most of the literature does not specifically identify changes in consumer behavior patterns. In this paper, with Hall’s test of reasonably expected long-term income estimation method, through two-stage estimation, the extent to which the marginal propensity to consume has changed since the residents in Beijing were specifically affected by the expected data was identified through two-stage estimation. The indirect test shows that the expenditure of urban residents Structural expectations rather than income expectations have changed the marginal propensity to consume.