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招商证券的罗毅先生曾深入分析M1的同比增速和深成指的相关性,并得出结论:当M1同比增长超出20%时,卖出;当M1同比增长低于10%,即买入。按此规律操作,从96年至今,收益率远跑赢大盘。本文根据罗毅先生的思路,将新增贷款增速进一步扩充至M0和M2,对比分析延伸至沪市。在具体分析的过程中发现,M1同比增速和深市之间的数值关联性并不能简单的延伸,而M2的同比增速和沪市高低点的正相关性规律可以重点关注。
Mr. Luo Yi from China Merchants Securities conducted an in-depth analysis of the correlation between M1’s YoY growth and Shenzhen Component Index and concluded that when M1 grows more than 20% YoY, it will sell; when M1 grows below 10% YoY, that is, buy Into. According to this rule of operation, from 96 years to now, yields far out to win the broader market. Based on the idea of Mr. Luo Yi, this paper further expands the growth of new loans to M0 and M2, extending the comparison to the Shanghai stock market. During the specific analysis, we found that the numerical correlation between the year-on-year growth rate of M1 and the market price of Shenzhen can not simply be extended. However, the positive correlation between the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and the level of Shanghai stock market can be the focus of attention.