Interaction Among Construction Investment,Other Investment and GDP in China

来源 :Tsinghua Science and Technology | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:guanyinchashe
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With Granger causality method, this paper examines the causal dynamics among three economic fundamentals: construction investment, other investment and the gross domestic product (GDP). Short-run and long-run interactive effects among these three time series are analyzed from 1981 to 2001. The empirical results show that construction investment has a stronger short-run effect on economic growth than other investment, and economic growth has a long-term effect on both construction and other investments. These findings indicate that construction investment is an important factor influencing short-term economic growth fluctuations, with its growth stimulating economic growth and its slumps leading to downside fluctuations. At the same time, invest-ment growth cannot be sustained without the support of the national economy. These empirical results have im-portant implications for economic policy makers in China. With Granger causality method, this paper examines the causal dynamics among three economic fundamentals: construction investment, other investment and the gross domestic product (GDP). Short-run and long-run interactive effects among these three time series are analyzed from 1981 to 2001 . The empirical results show that construction investment has a stronger short-run effect on economic growth than other investment, and economic growth has a long-term effect on both construction and other investments. These findings indicate construction investment is an important factor influencing short -term economic growth fluctuations, with its growth stimulating economic growth and its slumps leading to downside fluctuations. At the same time, invest-ment growth can not be sustained without the support of the national economy. These empirical results have im-portant implications for economic policy makers in China.
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