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针对台风、飓风等可预报自然灾害,对其登陆城市之前一定的安全时限内,大规模区域路网疏散的交通管理问题进行了研究.基于最优化理论与微观交通仿真相结合的方法,构造了面向区域疏散交通管理的双层建模框架.上层模型(最优化层)以修正元胞传输理论为基础,构建了适用于大规模路网疏散的交通管理方案优化模型,其输出的疏散交通管理策略备选集合,输入到下层模型(微观交通仿真模型)中,从而在微观层面考察驾驶员行为反应等上层模型难以捕捉的疏散特性,进而制定最优的疏散交通管理方案.案例分析的结果表明,该框架兼具最优化方法与微观交通仿真方法的双重优点,能够较好地服务于区域疏散交通规划与具体的区域疏散交通管理实践.
In view of the forecasted natural disasters such as typhoon and hurricane, the traffic management of large-scale regional road network evacuation within a certain safety deadline before landing in the city was studied.Based on the combination of optimization theory and micro-traffic simulation, A two-layer modeling framework for regional evacuation traffic management.The upper model (optimization layer) based on the modified cellular transmission theory, constructed an optimization model of traffic management scheme suitable for large-scale road network evacuation, and the output of evacuation traffic management Strategy alternative set is input into the lower model (micro-traffic simulation model) to investigate the evacuation characteristics which are hard to be captured by the upper model such as the driver’s behavioral response at the micro level, and then to develop the optimal evacuation traffic management scheme.The case analysis shows The framework combines the dual advantages of the optimization method and the micro-traffic simulation method, and can serve the evacuation traffic planning and the evacuation traffic management practice.