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借助于混合模拟法(HSM),通过响应面法拟合一个响应面来代替未知的真实状态曲面,再进行MonteCarlo随机抽样从而对重力坝进行稳定可靠度分析。计算中考虑上游水深、上游泥沙高度、抗剪断摩擦系数、抗剪断凝聚力、扬压力折减系数,作为随机输入变量。进一步的研究随机输入变量对抗滑可靠指标的敏感性以及材料的变异系数对抗滑可靠指标的影响,得到了一些重要的结论。指出了影响抗滑可靠度指标的最敏感因子,及提高抗滑可靠度指标的途径。算例表明HSM法计算大型非线性复杂结构的可靠度简便可行,计算结果能达到所需的精度要求。
By means of hybrid simulation (HSM), a response surface is fitted to the unknown real state surface by response surface method, followed by Monte Carlo random sampling to analyze the stability of the gravity dam. In the calculation, the upstream water depth, upstream sediment height, anti-shearing friction coefficient, anti-shearing cohesion force and uplift pressure reduction coefficient are taken as random input variables. Further research on the sensitivity of stochastic input variables to anti-skid reliability index and the effect of material variation coefficient on anti-skid reliability index have got some important conclusions. The most sensitive factor affecting the index of anti-skid reliability and the way of improving anti-skid reliability index are pointed out. The example shows that the HSM method is simple and feasible in calculating the reliability of large-scale non-linear complex structures and the calculation results can meet the required accuracy requirements.