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高填石路堤的沉降变形过程一般为从填石体施工期的瞬时变形到进一步的蠕变变形,利用沉降资料进行路堤沉降预测的常用模型可较好地反映其沉降变化规律及发展趋势,但尚存在一定的局限性．为了尽可能多地利用全部有用信息,利用“组合预测”思想,提出一种对多种常用预测模型进行变权重组合预测的方法,从而可根据有限的沉降实测数据达到预测路基沉降发展的目的,且工程实例分析表明,双曲线、指数曲线及时间平方根曲线的变权重组合能较好地预测高填石路堤的发展规律,具有明显的优越性．图5,表3,参8．
The settlement and deformation process of high embankment is generally from instantaneous deformation to further creep deformation during the construction period of embankment. The commonly used model of embankment settlement prediction based on settlement data can well reflect the changing law and development trend of subsidence. However, There are still some limitations. In order to utilize all the useful information as much as possible, this paper proposes a method of variable weight combination forecasting for a variety of commonly used forecasting models by using the idea of “combined forecasting” so as to forecast the settlement development of subgrade based on the measured data of settlement. The engineering example shows that the combination of hyperbolic curve, exponential curve and time square root curve can predict the development law of high embankment well and has obvious advantages. Figure 5, Table 3, reference 8.