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目的构建安徽省滁州市细菌性痢疾发病率的ARIMA模型,预测细菌性痢疾发病趋势。方法收集1987~2013年安徽省滁州市细菌性痢疾年发病率资料,通过SPSS软件拟合ARIMA模型,采用最大似然法估计模型参数,依据赤池信息准则与贝叶斯信息准则确定模型的阶数,用Q统计量对模型适应性进行检验,建立ARIMA预测模型。结果通过对参数和模型的拟合优度检验以及残差白噪声序列的检验,最终确定模型为ARIMA(1,1,1)。AIC=5.573,BIC=8.165,统计量Q=8.857<χ20.05,26。模型预测值与实际值的平均误差率MER=0.338。结论ARIMA模型能够应用于安徽省滁州市细菌性痢疾流行趋势的预测及预警,为实施干预提供依据。
Objective To construct the ARIMA model of bacterial dysentery in Chuzhou City of Anhui Province and predict the trend of bacterial dysentery. Methods The data of annual incidence of bacterial dysentery in Chuzhou, Anhui Province from 1987 to 2013 were collected. The ARIMA model was fitted by SPSS software, the model parameters were estimated by maximum likelihood method, and the order of the model was determined according to Chi Chi information criterion and Bayesian information criterion , Using Q statistics to test the adaptability of the model to establish the ARIMA prediction model. Results The model was finally determined to be ARIMA (1,1,1) by testing the goodness of fit of the parameters and the model and testing the residual white noise series. AIC = 5.573, BIC = 8.165, statistic Q = 8.857 <χ20.05,26. The average error rate of model predictive value and actual value MER = 0.338. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be applied to forecast and early warning of the epidemic trend of bacterial diarrhea in Chuzhou City, Anhui Province, and provide the basis for the implementation of the intervention.