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以县域为研究单元,运用崔王指数(TW)、经济增长指数和泰尔指数分解等方法,对1978—2007年新疆典型绿洲县域经济的增长及其差异进行了分析.结果表明:以崔王极化指数测度的绿洲县域经济极化态势呈波动性扩大的趋势,并大致可以分为2个不同的发展阶段;自1978年以来玛纳斯河流域各县域经济都得到了较快发展,绿洲平均经济增长率为18.6%.从整个绿洲来看,经济平均增长指数经历了“增加-降低-增加”的过程;从绿洲的不同灌区来看,各个分区的平均增长指数都出现了大幅度的波动,其极差为41.17%;泰尔指数的分解特征表明,1978—2007年间,灌区内差异虽然呈波动式下降的趋势,但它仍然主导着区域内经济的差异;但从不同灌区来看,石河子区和安集海区的经济差异占据了灌区内差异的90%以上,是灌区内差异的主体,是区域整体差异的根源.地理环境、人口文化素质、政策性因素等是造成玛纳斯河流域绿洲县域经济差异的最主要的原因.
Taking the county as the research unit, this paper analyzes the growth and differences of the typical oasis counties in Xinjiang from 1978 to 2007 using the methods of TWI, economic growth index and the Theil index decomposition, etc. The results show that: The trend of economic polarization in oasis counties in the polarization index trend shows a tendency of increasing volatility and can be roughly divided into two different stages of development. Since 1978, the economies of all counties in the Manas River Basin have enjoyed rapid development. Oases The average economic growth rate was 18.6% .Among the oases, the average growth index of the economy experienced the process of “increase-decrease-increase”; from the perspective of different oasis irrigation areas, the average growth index of all sub-regions appeared large The range of volatility was 41.17%. The decomposition of the Theil index showed that although the difference in the irrigation area showed a fluctuating downward trend from 1978 to 2007, it still dominated the economic differences in the region. However, from different irrigation areas The economic differences between Shihezi and Anjihai occupy more than 90% of the differences in irrigation districts, which are the main differences among different irrigation districts and the root causes of the differences in the whole area.Geographical Environment, Cultural Quality of Population, Policy-oriented And other factors is the main cause of economic differences oasis County Manas River Basin.