一、引言 对自由分子流传输几率的蒙特卡洛计算进行误差分析是比较容易的。分子通过真空元件与否这一随机试验进行N次构成的人造子样可视为挟义贝努里概型,其方差可由二项式分布的方差推出,算出的传输几率近似值是其真值的无偏估值,二者在一定置信概率下的概差可用区间估计来解 I. INTRODUCTION It is relatively easy to perform error analysis on Monte Carlo calculations of the probability of free molecular flow. Artifacts with N random occurrences of molecules passing through a vacuum element or not can be regarded as the bailout Bernoulli’s generalization, the variance of which can be deduced from the variance of the binomial distribution and the calculated transfer probability approximation is its true value Unbiased estimate, the difference between the two under a certain confidence probability can be used to estimate the interval