本文调查了八个新兴工业国家和地区出口增长和工业发展之间的因果关系。西姆士 (Sims)因果律检测法的结果表明,对于大多数新兴工业国家而言,在出口增长和工业发展之间,有着极为密切的双向因果关系。这些发现支持了出口带动经济增长的战略;按照这个战略,出口的扩张不仅会促进国民收入的增长,而且会导致发展中国家的结构转换。 This article investigates the causal link between export growth and industrial development in eight newly industrialized countries. The results of the Sims causation test show that for most of the newly industrializing countries there is a very close two-way causal link between export growth and industrial development. These findings support the exit-led strategy of economic growth; according to this strategy, the expansion of exports not only contributes to the growth of national income but also leads to the structural transformation of developing countries.