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元胞自动机(CA)是城市发展动态模拟的重要工具。本文以西安市为例,利用基于遗传算法的CA模型对西安市1990-2007年的城市发展进行模拟,得到了较好的效果。结果表明,运用遗传算法建立的CA模型能够较好地模拟城市发展状态;对模拟误差分析表明,影响城市土地利用变化机制的尺度特征,城市规划调整、重大事件、重大建设项目和行政区划调整等过程,城市不同发展阶段和不同区位的扩展类型等都将影响确定转换规则、寻找最佳参数和模拟精度的结果。
Cellular Automata (CA) is an important tool for dynamic urban development simulation. Taking Xi’an as an example, this paper uses the CA model based on genetic algorithm to simulate the urban development in Xi’an from 1990 to 2007 and obtains good results. The results show that the CA model established by genetic algorithm can better simulate the state of urban development. The analysis of simulation error shows that the scale characteristics of urban land use change mechanism, urban planning adjustment, major events, major construction projects and the adjustment of administrative divisions The process, the different stages of development in the city, and the expansion of different locations will all affect the determination of the conversion rules and the search for the best parameters and simulation accuracy.