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In this paper,through analyzing the decadal change of larger than 10℃ effective accumulated temperature around Bohai,to map out the sensitive areas on the irrigate agriculture cultivation system changes in the last 50 years.Selecting typical areas,analyzing probability risk of three natural disasters as frost,maximum temperatures and rainstorm in the sensitive areas,the probability change trend of three natural disasters was got under climate change scenarios in the future around Bohai.At last,give some advice on adaptation measures of regional agricultural cultivation systems changes under climate change.